ESPN Insider is a low cost (around $3 per month) subscription service that, outside of articles, provides access to AccuScore’s basic data.

The prediction model data (where is game is simulated 10,000 times) gives an outcome prediction, along with some historical gaming statistics.

Here is a screen cap of an Accuscore prediction from 07/28/10

Accuscore Baseball Betting Model

On this day the Rockies were -220 favourites, which is right in line with the 68% chance to win prediction method.

Get the latest Sports Wagering Odds at Bodog Sportsbook

On occasion you will be able to find underdogs that have a 55%+ accuscore chance of winning. In the future I would like to create a historical model of the accuscore betting method vs the vegas or online casino money line.

July 19th Lock – Boston Red Sox +$102

Date: July 19th

Teams: Boston at Toronto

Pitching: Lester vs Halladay

Lester owns the Jays, while conversely Halladay has a difficult time with the Red Sox. Lester has held Aaron Hill to a .167 OPS, and #3 hitter Adam Lind to a .282 OPS. Only two Jays have had success vs Lester, leadoff hitter Marco Scutaro (.849) and #6 hitter Alex Rios .830.

On the other hand Roy Halladay has allowed Bay and Ellsbury to post 1.1+ OPS, .900+ marks to Drew and Youkilis and a .838 OPS to Ortiz. That gives the Red Sox lineup five players with strong career numbers vs Roy.

Boston is the dog in this game, a rarity. They are 13 – 8 as a dog this season. Conversely Toronto is 25-23 as a favorite. Boston is 4-1 in it’s past five while Toronto is 4-13 in it’s past 17.

The Jays are 0-3 in Halladay’s past three starts, while Boston is 3-0 in Lester’s three most recent outings.

Too many numbers stack up in Boston’s favor.

Bet: $100 at Bodog to win $102

Update: Mark this down as a lose. The Red Sox ran into a hot Halladay, as the Doc pitched a complete game in under 105 pitches. Boston dropped the game 3-1, with all three Jays RBI coming from #8 hitter Rod Barajas. Jon Lester battled control issues all game, walking a season high. We’re now sitting at 2-2 on the season with our website based picks.

July 16th Lock – Phillies even money

Date: July 16th

Teams: Philadelphia Phillies at Flordia Marlins

Pitchers: Moyer vs Volstad

Bet: Phillies +100

Reasoning:

The Phillies have their full strength lineup back in place, with Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Ibanez and Werth batting 1-6

The Phils have won each of the past three Moyer starts. The Marlins are 1-2 in Volstad’s past three starts.

Volstad’s young age and pitch count average (94 per game) aren’t a good matchup in terms of going deep into a game vs the Phillies offense

At home the Marlins have the NL’s worst defense. The Phillies have the #1 overall offense in baseball, including the #1 road offense.

The Phillies are the majors best road team.

All things considered, I’ll take a Philly underdog status when I can get it.

The Marlins aren’t as good as they seem. While they are two games above .500 they are -13 in runs.

Bet: $100 on the Phillies at +100

Update: The Phillies staff, lead by Jamie Moyer, allowed only one hit in a 4-0 win. Ibanez launched two HR, and Howard hit one as well. Domination from the get go. This puts us back in positive $$$ after three picks.

Date: July 10th

Teams: Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

Pitchers: Duke vs Blanton

Bet: Phillies -170

Reasoning:

Zack Duke has allowed 8 HR in his past seven starts. His FB/GB ratio over that time has been 87/76. Not too shabby, not that great when heading into Philly.

Blanton is coming off of a solid start, inducing 13 GB vs 6 FB, going 7.1 IP with 0 ER.

Key bullpen members have pitched well for the Phillies over the past week. Madson has throw 4.2 perfect innings, Lidge has allowed only 1 ER and 4 baserunners vs 7 K in 4 IP. Walker, Durbin and Taschner have also not allowed a run this past week.

Phillies bats such as Rollins, Utley, Victorino and Werth all have week OPS stats over 1.1. This has obviously been skewed by the blowout win earlier in the week.

Accuscore gives the Phillies a high 65% chance of winning.

I’m not a fan of laying down much over -160 in baseball but I’ll break my rule this time around and take the -170 line on the Phils over at Beted.

Update: The Phillies got the job done 3-2. This victory puts us at a 1-1 record for the season on website picks.

Date: July 4th

Teams: Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

Pitchers: Halladay vs Wang

Bet: Jays -115

I’m in a bit of a rush here but this shouldn’t need to much of an explanation. Doc Hallady is in the top five in AL groundball percentage, plus he’s Doc. Wang on the other hand has been inconsistent, is sporting a career high flyball ratio and has seen his fastball flatten out. Despite the recent team records this is a pretty safe pick at a low line.

Update: The first online selection of the year ended up losing. The Jays dropped the game to the Yankees in 12 innings. Full season results will be posted in the results page, which is near the top of the screen. Time to get back on the horse and pick a couple of winners!

It’s been a while. Since the playoffs of last season to be exact. To be honest I place baseball bets in a few and far between fashion during the early months of the season. I’ll get my reasoning in a later post.

As for the 2009 season, I’ve placed a few online bets here and there. I had a decent 6 for 8 run while in Vegas three weeks back. Since taking up a semi-partnership with The Score (a Canadian Sports Television network) I feel that I’ve added a few new tricks to my game analysis.

Check back in on friday for three weekend picks. The goal this season is to push 65% and a 25%+ baseball betting return. We’ll keep track success rates for the season for full transparency.

Bodog has posted their 2008 World Series Playoff Odds.

Series Odds:

Tampa Bay – 150
Philadelphia + 130

For game one the line is:

Philadelphia – 105

Tampa – 105

Hamels is slatted to start for Philly and Kazmir is going for the Rays. This is an odd line. While Hamels has been hot it is very odd to the see the favored team (Rays) an even bet at home in the opening game of the series.

Hamels is the current Bodog favorite to win Series MVP, although he’s playing for the underdog, at 11/2. Kazmir is rated at 8 – 1.

Bet Player Lines (MVP etc)

Bet Game One

A handful of sportsbooks have begun to post their initial odds and lines for the 2008 World Series. The Tampa Bay Rays will receive the home field advantage due to the AL’s 15 inning victory during this seasons all-star game.

Justin Morneau Scoring the Winning Run During the 2008 All-Star Game

The Current Odds from two of the best sportsbooks on the web:

BetUS:

Tampa Bay – 155

Philadelphia + 125

To bet: Click Here ($75 sign-up bonus) 2008 World Series

BetED:

Tampa Bay – 150

Philadelphia +130

Bonus: Use Code WIN50 when signing up to receive an additional 50% if your first bet is a winner. 2008 World Series Odds

This is the closet World Series Line in over five years. Can you pick the winner and collect the $$$?

Over at Bodog there are a number of crazy “MLB player props” bets currenlty on for game 5.

Here are two of the more wacky, yet decent play bets for game five.

Jason Bartlett vs Jed Lowrie

At even odds I think Lowrie is a safe play. While Jed has only hit .238 during the 2008 playoffs he is hitting .333 at home (4 for 12) with two runs scored and one RBI. For the 2008 regular season his home OPS was close to 100 points higher than his road OPS.

On the other hand Jason Bartlett is 1 for 11 with 4 strikeouts in his career vs Dice-K.

Daisuke Matsuzaka over 5 1/2 strikeouts

Earlier in the series Dice-K set down 9 Rays on strikes. In his last regular season start vs Tampa he struck out 7. The only thing going against Matsuzaka is the nature of this game. It’s do or die for the Red Sox, so the leash is short tonight for Dice-K if any possible control problems arise.

To bet either of these player lines head over to Bodog, the best online sports book on the web.

Here are some preliminary betting odds on the 2008 World Series. To bet these odds you can visit Bodog Sports or BetED, the two best sportsbooks on the internet in terms of odds and payouts.

To Win World Series

Boston 3/2
LA Dodgers 9/2
Philadelphia 3/1
Tampa 5/2

World Series Match-ups

Philadelphia vs Tampa 2/1
Philadelphia vs Boston 6/5
LA Dodgers vs Boston 11/5
LA Dodgers vs Tampa 9/2

League Winning World Series

American League – 220
National League + 130

Notes: I have to say that the action on the National League winning the World Series seems like a decent value play. While the AL kicked the tar out of the NL during this season’s inter-league match-ups both the Phillies and the Dodgers should be able to match-up well with whomever prevails in the American League.

BetED is currently offering a 50% bonus on sign-ups during the World Series, so if you are on the fence this great bonus should be enough to convince you to give online sports betting a try.