July 19th Lock – Boston Red Sox +$102

Date: July 19th

Teams: Boston at Toronto

Pitching: Lester vs Halladay

Lester owns the Jays, while conversely Halladay has a difficult time with the Red Sox. Lester has held Aaron Hill to a .167 OPS, and #3 hitter Adam Lind to a .282 OPS. Only two Jays have had success vs Lester, leadoff hitter Marco Scutaro (.849) and #6 hitter Alex Rios .830.

On the other hand Roy Halladay has allowed Bay and Ellsbury to post 1.1+ OPS, .900+ marks to Drew and Youkilis and a .838 OPS to Ortiz. That gives the Red Sox lineup five players with strong career numbers vs Roy.

Boston is the dog in this game, a rarity. They are 13 – 8 as a dog this season. Conversely Toronto is 25-23 as a favorite. Boston is 4-1 in it’s past five while Toronto is 4-13 in it’s past 17.

The Jays are 0-3 in Halladay’s past three starts, while Boston is 3-0 in Lester’s three most recent outings.

Too many numbers stack up in Boston’s favor.

Bet: $100 at Bodog to win $102

Update: Mark this down as a lose. The Red Sox ran into a hot Halladay, as the Doc pitched a complete game in under 105 pitches. Boston dropped the game 3-1, with all three Jays RBI coming from #8 hitter Rod Barajas. Jon Lester battled control issues all game, walking a season high. We’re now sitting at 2-2 on the season with our website based picks.

July 16th Lock – Phillies even money

Date: July 16th

Teams: Philadelphia Phillies at Flordia Marlins

Pitchers: Moyer vs Volstad

Bet: Phillies +100

Reasoning:

The Phillies have their full strength lineup back in place, with Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Ibanez and Werth batting 1-6

The Phils have won each of the past three Moyer starts. The Marlins are 1-2 in Volstad’s past three starts.

Volstad’s young age and pitch count average (94 per game) aren’t a good matchup in terms of going deep into a game vs the Phillies offense

At home the Marlins have the NL’s worst defense. The Phillies have the #1 overall offense in baseball, including the #1 road offense.

The Phillies are the majors best road team.

All things considered, I’ll take a Philly underdog status when I can get it.

The Marlins aren’t as good as they seem. While they are two games above .500 they are -13 in runs.

Bet: $100 on the Phillies at +100

Update: The Phillies staff, lead by Jamie Moyer, allowed only one hit in a 4-0 win. Ibanez launched two HR, and Howard hit one as well. Domination from the get go. This puts us back in positive $$$ after three picks.

Date: July 10th

Teams: Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

Pitchers: Duke vs Blanton

Bet: Phillies -170

Reasoning:

Zack Duke has allowed 8 HR in his past seven starts. His FB/GB ratio over that time has been 87/76. Not too shabby, not that great when heading into Philly.

Blanton is coming off of a solid start, inducing 13 GB vs 6 FB, going 7.1 IP with 0 ER.

Key bullpen members have pitched well for the Phillies over the past week. Madson has throw 4.2 perfect innings, Lidge has allowed only 1 ER and 4 baserunners vs 7 K in 4 IP. Walker, Durbin and Taschner have also not allowed a run this past week.

Phillies bats such as Rollins, Utley, Victorino and Werth all have week OPS stats over 1.1. This has obviously been skewed by the blowout win earlier in the week.

Accuscore gives the Phillies a high 65% chance of winning.

I’m not a fan of laying down much over -160 in baseball but I’ll break my rule this time around and take the -170 line on the Phils over at Beted.

Update: The Phillies got the job done 3-2. This victory puts us at a 1-1 record for the season on website picks.

Date: July 4th

Teams: Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

Pitchers: Halladay vs Wang

Bet: Jays -115

I’m in a bit of a rush here but this shouldn’t need to much of an explanation. Doc Hallady is in the top five in AL groundball percentage, plus he’s Doc. Wang on the other hand has been inconsistent, is sporting a career high flyball ratio and has seen his fastball flatten out. Despite the recent team records this is a pretty safe pick at a low line.

Update: The first online selection of the year ended up losing. The Jays dropped the game to the Yankees in 12 innings. Full season results will be posted in the results page, which is near the top of the screen. Time to get back on the horse and pick a couple of winners!